我们发现了什么
我们正在打造取代我们的 AI。按理说,我们现在不是早该被 AI 取代了吗?
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中文辅助译文(全文)
我们不是早该被 AI 取代了吗?或者至少工作得少一些?AI 智能体本该接管世界。那么究竟要到什么时候才会发生,而我们为什么还在做这么多工作?
因为我们不能假装什么都没有改变。即便在我工作的地方——那里几乎把数据安全置于一切之上——我们已经在使用 AI 编程智能体了。在我看来,这意味着它们如今几乎无处不在。 
简单功能几乎都能自行编写完成,即便是对遗留应用程序进行调试,也变得容易多了。
而我们目前还只是处于这场革命的开端!
当 AI 能做任何事情时,会发生什么?
最近,一位朋友兼同事鼓励我写一篇文章,谈谈如何在为时已晚之前进入 AI 领域。毕竟,这场革命总得有人来构建,对吧?
很快,应用程序几乎都会自行编写完成。AI 甚至会坐在你的马桶上,礼貌地提醒你在给自己惹上痔疮之前该起身了。xD 那么,我们该做些什么,以免被挤出就业市场?
由于我对 AI 智能体略知一二,而且在这个行业已经待了相当长一段时间,我开始研究未来几年可能是什么样子。研究得越久,我就越悲观。因为没错,眼下我们有专门针对 AI 智能体的大型会议。我们正努力正确地构建它们,使其安全、可靠,诸如此类。
但几年之后,当我们也解决了这些问题,一个智能体仅凭一条提示词就能派生十个自己的子智能体时,又会发生什么?开发者究竟要在其中扮演什么角色?
(好吧,至少目前我的印象是,几乎没人知道工具调用或 WebMCP 是什么。😅 但也许这只是时间问题?)
取代所有人这件事有一个问题...
好吧,但整个这套理论有个问题。有时,当听到人们谈论“AI 会取代我们所有人”时,我觉得我们忘记了一件相当重要的事。如果借助 AI,一家大型公司只需少数几个人就能运营,而大多数人口最终失业,那些公司究竟要把产品卖给谁? 毕竟,人们得挣钱买东西!
现在,把所有克制都抛到九霄云外,彻底进入科幻模式吧。想象一下,现在是 2031 年。自主 AI 智能体几乎包办一切。人类只剩下水管工或理发师之类的手工工作。
但即使是这些人也几乎没有顾客,因为其他所有人都失业了,并在拼命削减非必要开支。
经济开始崩塌。人们开始抗议。那么政府会怎么做?为了防止爆发全面叛乱并维持自身统治,它们开始制定旨在让人类重返劳动力市场的法律。
又或者,我们终于可以少工作一些?
也许五年或十年后,软件工程将不再是那些真正懂得编程或理解技术的人才能从事的工作。也许它会变成任何人都能直接上手的工作。
但也许我们应该把这个想法再推进一步。与其把人们赶出工作岗位,为什么不利用 AI 智能体的高生产力,让人们兼职工作却领取同样的薪水 也许我们可以每周工作三天,而不是五天,把剩余时间用来做想做的事:放松、学习新东西、发展自己?
哦,多么美好的愿景!想想看,我可以写多少篇文章。终于能睡够觉了。我甚至可能抽出时间收拾衣柜里那一大堆衣服,而它目前在我的人生中优先级几乎为零!🤯
但这个美好愿景只有一个小小的问题。自蒸汽机发明以来,一再向我们许诺的空闲时间究竟都去哪儿了? 因为我肯定没有少工作!
AI 让我们更高效。那我们为什么反而工作得更多?
事实上恰恰相反。我觉得自己工作得越来越多,期待也不断提高,因为“AI 会帮你处理这个”。没错,实际编写代码中我们很多人真正享受的那一部分,已经有一部分被自动化了。
但其他所有事情呢?协调、无休止的会议,以及为确保整个项目不崩塌而持续付出的努力?
你会不会也有这种感觉:因为似乎我们应该能交付更多,所以我们就一直在努力做到更多;而不知怎么,结果并不总像我们预期的那样?
我还觉得,尽管每个人都已经是某个编程智能体的付费订阅用户,企业对 AI 的采用仍处于早期阶段。仍然需要有人思考架构。仍然需要有人首先弄清楚如何自动化智能体的工作。
没错,我不断听说整个工作流都由“智能体大军”处理。但那些不都是从零开发的项目吗?因为我有一种感觉:遗留应用程序仍然按它们自己的规则运行。
而那个再正常不过的、生物学意义上的人类,仍然是瓶颈...或者,也许我们根本就不是瓶颈?😉
那么初级开发者呢?
没错,很难否认初级开发者目前日子不好过。绝对有一部分原因是 AI。但不只是因为 AI。
十年前,开发者需求极其庞大,公司几乎会雇用任何会写 export class 的人。有些公司甚至自行组织训练营,为未来员工提供培训。
但在 AI 到来之前,那些日子就已经接近尾声。人们意识到,IT 提供了一条相对轻松舒适又能赚到高薪的道路,于是越来越多人进入这个行业,市场就这样变得饱和。
AI 只是把最后一颗钉子狠狠砸进了棺材板。
那么...我们的计划是什么?
现在,我真心想知道你怎么看。我真的不希望这篇文章变成那种“看看 Sylwia 有多聪明,她已经弄清了软件工程的整个未来”之类的文章。因为我并没有!我真的不知道。
你如何看待我们行业的未来?我们最终都会失业吗?会不会出现全新的工程职业——那些今天甚至无法想象的工作?
又或者——这是我的个人梦想——文明最终终于能做成一件真正有利于人类的事,最终实现每周三天工作制?
我非常想听听你的想法!
顺便说一句,看看这个视频!缩略图上那个美得不得了的人是谁?如果我有一天被迫创建 Tinder 个人资料,我肯定会用那张照片。不过视频里只是平常的 Sylwia,一如既往地谈论应用迁移。所以如果你感兴趣,不妨看一下!☺️
如果你喜欢我的内容,也可以在 LinkedIn 上关注我!
译文由上游机器翻译生成,可能有误;判断请以英文原文为准。
英文原文(来源本站未改写)
Weren't we supposed to be replaced by AI by now? Or at least work less? AI agents were supposed to take over the world. So when exactly is that going to happen, and why are we still working so much?
Because we can't pretend that nothing has changed. Even at my workplace, where data security is valued above pretty much everything else, we're already using AI coding agents. Which, in my opinion, means they're basically everywhere by now. 
Simple features practically write themselves, and even debugging, including in legacy applications, has become significantly easier.
And we're only at the beginning of this revolution!
What Happens When AI Can Do Everything?
A friend and colleague of mine recently encouraged me to write an article about how to get into AI before it's too late. After all, someone will have to build this revolution, right?
Soon, applications will practically write themselves. AI will even be sitting in your toilet, politely suggesting that it's time to get up before you give yourself hemorrhoids. xD So what should we do to avoid being pushed out of the job market?
Since I know a thing or two about AI agents, and I've been in this industry for quite a while, I started researching what the next few years might look like. And the longer I researched, the more pessimistic I became. Because sure, right now we have huge conferences dedicated to AI agents. We're trying to build them properly, make them secure, reliable, and so on.
But what happens in a few years, when we've solved those problems too, and an agent can spin up ten sub-agents of its own from a single prompt? Where exactly will developers fit into that picture?
(Okay, for now I still get the impression that hardly anyone even knows what tool calling or WebMCP is. 😅 But maybe that's just a matter of time?)
There's One Problem With Replacing Everyone...
Okay, but there's a catch in this whole theory. Sometimes, when I hear people talking about how "AI is going to replace all of us," I feel like we're forgetting something pretty important. If a massive company can be run by just a handful of people thanks to AI, and most of the population ends up unemployed, who exactly are those companies going to sell their products to? People need to earn money to buy things, after all!
Now, let's throw all restraint out the window and go full science fiction. Imagine it's 2031. Autonomous AI agents do practically everything. Humans are left with manual jobs, like plumbers or hairdressers.
But even those people have hardly any customers, because everyone else is unemployed and desperately cutting back on unnecessary expenses.
The economy starts collapsing. People start protesting. So what do governments do? To prevent a full-blown revolt and keep themselves in power, they start introducing laws designed to bring humans back into the workforce.
Or Maybe We Could Finally Work Less?
Maybe in five or ten years, software engineering won't be a job for people who actually know how to program or understand the technology. Maybe it'll be something literally anyone can do.
But perhaps we should take this idea even further. Instead of throwing people out of their jobs, why not take advantage of how productive AI agents are and let people work part-time for the same salary Maybe we could work three days instead of five, and spend the rest of our time doing whatever we want: relaxing, learning new things, developing ourselves?
Oh, what a beautiful vision! Just imagine how many articles I could write. I'd finally get enough sleep. I might even find time to deal with that enormous pile of clothes sitting in my wardrobe, which currently has approximately zero priority in my life! 🤯
But there's just one tiny problem with this wonderful vision. Where is all that free time we've been promised since the invention of the steam engine? Because I'm certainly not working less!
AI Makes Us More Productive. So Why Are We Working More?
Quite the opposite, actually. I feel like I'm working more and more, and expectations keep growing, because "AI will help you with that." And yes, some of the actual coding, the part so many of us genuinely enjoyed, has already been partially automated.
But what about everything else? The coordination, the endless meetings, the constant effort to make sure the entire project doesn't fall apart?
Don't you get the impression that because it seems like we should be able to deliver more, that's exactly what we keep trying to do? And somehow, it doesn't always work out the way we expected?
I also feel like AI adoption in companies is still in its infancy, even if everyone already has a paid subscription to a coding agent. Someone still needs to think about the architecture. Someone needs to figure out how to automate the agent's work in the first place.
Yes, I keep hearing about entire workflows handled by "armies of agents." But aren't those mostly greenfield projects? Because I have a feeling that legacy applications still play by their own rules.
And the good old biological human is still the bottleneck... Or maybe we're not the bottleneck at all? 😉
And What About Junior Developers?
And yes, it's hard to disagree that junior developers have it tough right now. Partly because of AI, absolutely. But not only because of AI.
Ten years ago, the demand for developers was so enormous that companies would hire practically anyone who could write export class. Some companies even organized their own bootcamps to train future employees.
But those days were already coming to an end before AI arrived. People realized that IT offered a relatively easy and comfortable way to make good money, so more and more people entered the industry, and the market simply became saturated.
AI just hammered the final nail into the coffin.
So... What's the Plan?
And now I'm genuinely curious what you think. I really don't want this article to be one of those "look how brilliant Sylwia is, she has figured out the entire future of software engineering" pieces. Because I haven't! I genuinely don't know.
How do you see the future of our industry? Are we all going to end up unemployed? Will entirely new engineering professions emerge, jobs we can't even imagine today?
Or maybe, and this is my personal dream, civilization will finally manage to do something that actually benefits human beings, and we'll end up with a three-day workweek?
I'd really love to hear your thoughts!
BTW, check out this video! Who is that absolutely gorgeous person on the thumbnail? If I'm ever forced to create a Tinder profile, I'm definitely using that picture. Inside the video, though, it's just regular Sylwia talking about application migration like she always does. So if you're interested, feel free to give it a watch! ☺️
And if you enjoy my content, you can also follow me on LinkedIn!
出处https://dev.to/sylwia-lask/were-building-ai-to-replace-ourselves-whats-the-plan-4oll
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